The rise of artificial general intelligence (AGI) — an artificial intelligence (AI) system with superhuman intelligence that can perform well at various tasks — is a matter of when, not if, according to a new analysis of thousands of expert opinions.
The updated analysis, conducted Feb. 18 by Cem Dilmegani, principal analyst at AIMultiple Research, has combed through approximately 8,600 predictions from scientists, AI experts and entrepreneurs between 2009 and 2023 to understand when experts believe it may happen.
A subsection of the analysis encompassed 10 surveys that queried a total of 5,288 AI researchers and experts. Based on an averaging of the data, there’s a 50% probability that we would achieve human-level intelligence in machines at some point between 2040 and 2061, the analysis found.
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